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The Forest County Potawatomi's objection to the Menominee tribe's efforts to open a massive casino complex in Kenosha can be summed up very simply:

"We were here first."

The impoverished Menominee tribe's desire to open shop in Kenosha — and tap the lucrative Chicagoland market — is even easier to summarize:

"Where's ours?"

Those two positions are at the heart of the bitter feud over whether the Menominee could open an $800 million casino complex at the site of the closed Dairyland Greyhound Park.

Though the federal government approved the Menominee plan on Aug. 23, the tribe still has several high hurdles to clear before the first gambler could drop a buck into a slot machine or roll the dice at a craps table. The tribe must:

■ Convince Gov. Scott Walker to approve the deal. As governor, Walker has absolute authority to approve or veto any casino plan. Walker has said he would approve an off-reservation casino only if there was a "consensus" among tribes agreeing to it. He has defined consensus to mean approval from each of the state's 11 tribes — including the Potawatomi. The governor has given few other clues as to how or when he would make his decision.

■ Find a financing source for the project, which the tribe hopes will ultimately include 3,000 slot machines, about 100 table games, a hotel and convention center. Though doable, "it's going to be a challenge to get $800 million," said Frank Fantini, chief executive officer of the Fantini Gaming Report. "Banks and bond purchasers don't lend nearly as liberally as they did before the the recession."

■ Find a developer who will infuse short-term cash and guide the project through its early stages. The Menominee tribe has rolled snake eyes in its previous bids keep a developer. One left the project just before being indicted, the tribe owes a second about $12 million and a third company left last year when questions arose about its qualifications and financial wherewithal.

■ Hire a management company to run a casino that is expected to post a net win — that is, the amount of money lost by gamblers — of more than $540 million by its third year of operation, a figure that would catapult it to the top of Wisconsin's casino industry. Currently, Potawatomi Bingo Casino is the state's largest gambling hall, with a net casino win of more than $363 million, according to a Journal Sentinel estimate. The calculation covers the amount won after the tribe pays the state a $20 to $30 million annual fee.

■ Make peace with the Potawatomi — an ally on some environmental issues but a fierce opponent of the Kenosha casino. The new competition would surely lure many Chicagoland customers away from the Milwaukee casino, making it necessary to somehow cover the Potawatomi's anticipated loss. The loss of business would impact each of the approximately 1,400 individual members of the tribe, each of whom now receives an annual dividend — known as a per capita payment — of more than $70,000 annually.

"We definitely want to be able to protect our tribal members," Potawatomi Attorney General Jeff Crawford said when asked about the payments.

The Potawatomi tribe — which has already spent millions since the late 1990s opposing the Kenosha casino project and currying favor with political leaders — will go to court if Walker blesses the Menominee proposal.

"We most certainly will sue," Crawford vowed.

'Once in a lifetime'

In approving the Menominee plan, the U.S. Department of Interior said it was more important to help the Menominee tribe out of poverty than it was to protect the Potawatomi per capita payment.

"As the Federal trustee for Indian nations, our hearts would sing to see more than 8,700 Menominee Indians follow in the successful footsteps of the 1,400 Potawatomi," Kevin Washburn, the U.S. Department of the Interior's assistant secretary for Indian affairs, wrote in a three-page letter to Walker asking him to approve the Kenosha casino.

Because of the size of its tribe and the needs of the members, the Menominee will not pay a dividend to its members, its casino application states.

Rather, it plans to use its casino dividends — the casino is expected to create annual cash flow of more than $261 million by its 10th year of operation — for government services.

"This is a once in a lifetime opportunity...to create sustainability and to help our tribe like nothing else can, said Gary Besaw, chairman of the Menominee-Kenosha Gaming Authority. "A third of the families are in poverty here, there are unmet medical needs...our infrastructure has needs, we have social (services) needs — there are just so many components that are under-funded."

Since the Menominee plan won federal approval, the Potawatomi and Menominee have been engaged in a war of words and hyperbole.

Crawford repeatedly chastised the Kenosha proposal during a one-hour interview last week, saying it had a history of scandal and corruption and calling the proposal "a textbook nightmare scenario." Still, Crawford left a sliver of hope when pressed on whether the Potawatomi's accusations meant the two tribes could never work together in a Kenosha casino, saying: "I don't have that authority to say that at this point."

The Menominee has repeatedly offered to cut the Potawatomi into the project, just last week offering to make the tribe casino manager and developer of the proposed Kenosha project.

Joining the fray as a Kenosha casino foe is Enough Already Wisconsin, a secretive special interest group that has refused to disclose its funding sources. The group is running television and radio ads in Milwaukee, Madison and the Fox Valley. Brian Nemoir, a Republican operative who runs the group, said it hopes to increase its advertising campaign.

The Menominee also has to deal with the Ho-Chunk tribe, whose lucrative gambling operations, with a flagship casino near Wisconsin Dells, is collectively winning more than $250 million annually. The Ho-Chunk is trying to open its own off-reservation casino in Beloit.

The tribe is opposing the Kenosha deal because — like the Menominee and Potawatomi — it claims a historical tie to the land, said Jon Greendeer, Ho-Chunk president. "That position is not going to change on my watch," Greendeer said.

Striking similarities

Though the Menominee and Potawatomi are at each other's throats today, there are striking similarities between the current Menominee bid and the Potawatomi effort that led to the creation of Potawatomi Bingo Casino more than 20 years ago.

The Potawatomi people were mired in poverty, just as the Menominee are today. The Menominee tribe spoke out against the Potawatomi bid (though it did not mount a massive lobbying and advertising to block it.) And ultimately, the Potawatomi was the first off-reservation casino in the nation approved by the feds and a state's governor; the Menominee hopes to be the sixth.

"Admittedly, allowing an off-reservation casino located more than 150 miles from a reservation headquarters might not be appropriate in any other state," Interior's Washburn wrote, referring to the 160 miles from the Menominee headquarters near Keshena and the site of the proposed casino. But, he added, the Potwatomi Milwaukee casino is nearly 200 miles from its Crandon headquarters, making it "a very specific precedent for such an action in Wisconsin."

Both efforts have also been stung by corruption and controversy.

The Potawatomi's Crawford argues that Walker should veto the Kenosha casino because documents in its federal application include signatures of Allan Kehl, a former Kenosha County executive convicted in 2008 of accepting bribes, and Michael Chapman, a former Menominee chairman who was linked to Jack Abramoff, a former Washington, D.C., lobbyist who was convicted on corruption charges.

Their signatures appear on 2005 documents concerning payments the tribe would make to local governments.

The bribes to Kehl came from Dennis Troha, the former developer of the project, who was convicted of misdemeanor violations of federal campaign finance laws.

"The entire history...of this Kenosha project is filled with corruption and scandal," Crawford said.

Menominee's Besaw defended the tribe's application, saying: "They're looking for any excuse to save their monopoly. I mean, its pretty obvious."

The Potawatomi also had issues in its early years — although Crawford argued "it's comparing a pebble to a mountain."

One of the Potawatomi casino's early financial backers left the deal when it was disclosed Nevada gaming regulators said he had dealings with "persons of questionable and unsavory reputation." The investor and his wife later received more than $820,000 in dividends from the company that had managed Potawatomi Bingo Casino.

Political muscle

There is one hallmark of the Potawatomi effort to block the Kenosha casino that seems to be missing this time around — large campaign donations.

The Potawatomi in 2006 gave at least $1 million to the liberal Greater Wisconsin Committee in its efforts to help then-Gov. Jim Doyle with his successful re-election bid that year. The Potawatomi also gave at least $450,000 to help Doyle and other Democrats in 2002.

Despite the ties to the state's top Democrat at the time, the Potawatomi also developed a close relationship with Walker, who at the time was Milwaukee County executive. This year, the tribe strengthened that relationship by helping sponsor the National Governors Association's annual meeting in Milwaukee — a Walker pet project.

The Potawatomi appeared to largely stay out of Walker's 2010 race for governor and his 2012 recall election. The tribe's political action committee gave the governor $4,000 in 2011 and $1,000 this year.

Some expect that will be changing soon. "There will be a lot of money flying around in the next year," said a source with ties to several tribes.

Nobody, with the possible exception of Walker, knows how this controversy will end.

There is one sure thing, however: A new Kenosha casino would siphon business from the Potawatomi casino, with some estimating the tribe could lose up to 40% of its gaming revenue.

The Potawatomi tribe claims it would lose about $150 million in revenue — roughly one-third of its total — although that amount is doubted by the Interior and other observers.

"Thirty to 40% sounds like a lot," said Fantini, the industry analyst, who has been following gaming since the mid-1990s. "I don't think that's going to happen."

Fantini said the Potawatomi would keep its stranglehold on the Milwaukee metro market, though it could lose a chunk of the people driving up from Kenosha County and northern Illinois. He noted that in comparable situations, the drop in business been more modest. For example, when a casino opened in Toledo, Ohio, the Detroit gambling halls only lost about 5% of their take.

Both casinos should be profitable, he said, noting that even though the business in general has been slumping, "a well-run casino is still looking at 20 percent (profit margin) or better."

Fantini's bottom line: "It would would seem to make eminent sense to sit down and cut a deal. Certainly that region...is big enough to support two casinos."

Patrick Marley of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.

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