SYRACUSE, N.Y. - Powerful developers, grass-roots protesters and well-paid lobbyists will find out Wednesday whether their bets for and against four new casinos in Upstate New York will pay off.

One of the proposed casinos would be in the Seneca County town of Tyre, 42 miles west of Syracuse. It's backed by Thomas Wilmot, the Rochester developer.

Jeff Gural, owner of Vernon Downs harness racing track in Oneida County, is competing with Wilmot for the chance to expand his Tioga Downs harness track near the Pennsylvania border into a full-blown casino.

The two influential businessmen are among 16 applicants who've sunk millions of dollars into campaign contributions and lobbying efforts to convince the state their plans for Las Vegas-style casinos and resorts will boost economic development in the Finger Lakes, Southern Tier, Catskills and around Albany's Capital Region.

On the other side are some residents, like in Tyre, who've organized in recent months to fight increased traffic and looser zoning laws they believe would remake their hometowns for the worse. The Oneida Indian Nation shares their opposition but for a different reason: It believes a new casino about the same driving distance from Syracuse would significantly hurt business at their Turning Stone casino.

As of early this week, people on both sides said they had no idea what the state's Gaming Commission, controlled by Gov. Andrew Cuomo, would announce at 2 p.m. Wednesday.

Wilmot, who wants to build the $425 million Lago Resort and Casino in Seneca County, said he hasn't heard a word from the state since officially submitting his bid this summer. He dismissed speculation Monday about what regions might win and which developers might lose.

"There are a million rumors running around, but nobody knows anything," said Wilmot, who, with his family, has donated $60,000 to Cuomo's two campaigns for governor. Just this year, he spent $90,000 to hire a lobbyist to work on gaming issues with Upstate and Albany politicians.

Desiree Dawley, a potential neighbor to Lago in the town of Tyre, is at the other end of this economic and political argument. She says she has no money for lobbyists. Instead, she and her husband have stopped work on their new house next door to the Lago site in Seneca County.

Now, they are pouring much of their free time toward fighting Wilmot's plans with a group called CasinoFreeTyre.

"We're not hearing anything from the Gaming Commission," she said Monday. "They've been very closed-mouth."

Gural, who donated $56,000 toward Cuomo's recent re-election bid, didn't return a phone call Monday afternoon.

Cuomo says he's staying out of the process, the Associated Press reported.

"We set up the process that has a separate board making the decision," Cuomo told reporters last week. "They should just do their job and go through the law and pick the best operators."

A panel controlled by the Gaming Commission, the New York Gaming Facility Location Board, will make the decisions. Members of the panel have said they plan to base their decision on the strength of the proposals and their potential economic impact to the surrounding communities.

The Oneidas are studying that as well. The Mohawk Valley Economic Development Growth Enterprises Corp. released a report in late October saying Wilmot's proposed casino - almost equal distance from Syracuse when compared with Turning Stone - would take 67 percent of its revenues from gamblers at existing casinos. (Wilmot disputed the study.) A month later, the Oneidas announced plans for a $100 million luxury outlet and entertainment venue.

Voters last year authorized up to four casinos to be divided among three upstate regions: the Albany-Saratoga area, the Southern Tier-Finger Lakes region and the Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley.

The regions were drawn to afford Native American-run casinos like Turning Stone a buffer against competing casinos. In return, the Oneidas and other tribes now share gaming revenues with the state.

The zones were also drawn to lure New York City residents and tourists into Upstate to spend vacations and money.

Each of the three zones can have one winner. One zone can have two winners. It's also possible the commission could award fewer than four winners.

Those variables are driving the rumors. Some believe the commission will award two licenses in the Catskills, an established tourist area close to New York City. That would leave the Capital Region and the hybrid Finger Lakes-Southern Tier zone - and possibly Gural and Wilmot - to fight for the remaining two licenses.

The state's move to expand its gambling offerings attracted a mix of big names like Genting, Mohegan Sun, Hard Rock and Caesars as well as local developers like the Walsh family, who hope to build a casino near Binghamton, or the owners of Howe Caverns, who want to add a casino at the site of a Schoharie County show cave.

Gural wants to expand Tioga Downs, a harness racing track in the village of Nichols just two miles from the Pennsylvania state line. Gural argues he can bring in more out-of-state gamblers and transform his racino into a full-fledged casino within six months. He's promising a total of 1,241 jobs in the end with starting wages at $10.10 an hour.

But Wilmot's proposal is bigger and newer, with promises of 1,200 construction jobs, 1,800 permanent jobs and a larger hotel in a town that's home to the Montezuma Wildlife Refuge. Wilmot says he can open Lago by the end of 2015.

A third proposal, Traditions Resort and Casino in Johnson City, is also competing against Wilmot and Gural.

Both Wilmot and Gural won approval for their plans from the local governments in Nichols and Tyre, a requirement for submitting a qualified bid.

Dawley said the Tyre Town Board's vote doesn't represent the community's view. She says more than 200 of the town's 858 residents have signed a petition against Lago.

And, as of Monday morning, she's already spoken to CasinoFreeTyre's lawyer to see what move they might make if Wilmot wins on Wednesday. She declined to name those options. The group has another meeting planned for Tuesday night, on the eve of the Gaming Commission's announcement.

Wilmot said he's going to Albany Wednesday for the announcement. Dawley said she plans to watch from Tyre on her computer.

Even if Wilmot loses and CasinoFreeTyre wins, the group won't immediately disband. They fear Wilmot or other developers will continue to look at Tyre, an undeveloped area just off Exit 41 of the New York State Thruway.

"We won't let our guard down," Dawley said.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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