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Happy New Year to all. It’s a particularly happy new year for Macau casino owners, undoubtedly delighted to put 2014 behind them. By all indicators, Macau’s annual gaming revenue fell for the first time since new operators joined Stanley Ho’s former monopoly in the market a decade ago, though it will remain the world’s top gaming destination by far, about seven times bigger than Las Vegas. One number that’s already in: Hong Kong traded shares of Macau’s six operators fell an average of 38.7% in 2014. Ouch!

Some of Macau’s Asian rivals have benefited from mainland China’s anti-corruption campaign that analysts say has stifled the global gaming capital. Cambodia’s NagaWorld stands among the biggest beneficiaries. Gaming destinations as distant as Australia and Las Vegas are also thought to be gaining Chinese customers looking for alternatives to Macau, though Union Gaming Research Macau managing partner Grant Govertsen says many of the mainland’s biggest players simply aren’t gambling.

Galaxy Macau’s Phase 2, expected to open in May, should spur Macau’s rebound this year. (Photo credit: Galaxy Entertainment Group)

Beyond Macau’s slump, the real story in the region is the growth of casino facilities. In Macau, despite the slump, each of six licensees has a new resort and/or major addition under construction. Manila opened its third integrated resort last month, with the other two in the midst of expansion, one more under construction and ground broken for yet another. In southern Vietnam,  The Grand- Ho Tram beefed up its nvestor and executive ranks, then announced expansion plans. In the north, Australia listed Donaco International opened its five-star Aristo International Hotel on Vietnam’s border with China’s Yunnan Province. NagaWorld’s massive Naga2 expansion continues. South Korea has licensed two integrated resorts, and could license more.

Further afield, Sri Lanka is proceeding with a trio of casino resorts aiming at the China and India markets. Five hours by air from Shanghai, US territories Saipan and neighboring Tinian also hope to cash in. James Packer’s Crown Resorts Crown Resorts is constructing Sydney’s second casino resort and bidding for one of Queensland’s three gaming licenses on offer, aiming to boost tourism in Australia’s northeastern region.

Amid these contradictory trends, here are some thoughts on what to expect in 2015.

Macau rebounds: The opening of Galaxy Macau’s Phase 2, likely in the second quarter, should mark an inflection point for Macau casino revenue. The public reception for Galaxy, Melco Crown’s Studio City Macau opening a few months later and the possible partial opening of Sheldon Adelson led Las Vegas Sands Las Vegas Sands subsidiary Sands China’s Parisian before the year’s end will strongly indicate how much of Macau’s current woes are due to the President Xi’s anti-corruption campaign and how much is due to the lack of new resorts to excite visitors. The latter may be a much bigger factor than presumed, especially among mass market players.

If the new resorts have compelling draws – whether in the form of must-see attractions, unique experiences, world class service or superior value for money – they may help Macau along the road toward the kind of diversification that’s most possible: extending its market reach beyond mainland China.